As part of efforts to lower its prison population, a recent report found that both incarceration rates and arrests in Colorado have declined sharply over the past decade. The state’s rate of recidivism—when a convicted criminal reoffends—has also decreased. However, this does not necessarily mean that crime is decreasing.
Instead, the report attributes these declines to a prioritization by lawmakers on leniency. This approach has largely led to reductions in recidivism, arrests, and the overall prison population.
“Over the past two decades, Colorado has pursued a steady course of criminal justice reform aimed at reducing the footprint of the state’s correctional system,” the report stated. “Lawmakers have prioritized leniency: lower sentences for drug offenses, expanded parole and probation opportunities, and restrictions on law enforcement discretion.”
This tension between enforcement and leniency is reflected in the state’s crime trends over the past decade. From 2014 to 2024, the number of arrests declined by nearly 30%. Similarly, Colorado’s recidivism rate fell by 40% between 2008 and 2019—ranking as the third-highest decline of any state nationwide.
“In 2008, Colorado had the country’s fifth highest recidivism rate,” said DJ Summers, the institute’s director of communications and research operations, during a press conference about the report on Tuesday. “Now the state’s recidivism has dropped to a more average rate.”
The decline in arrests has played a significant role in this progress. Between 2016 and 2024, the total number of inmates in Colorado’s prisons and jails decreased by 12%. This drop was largely due to a significant reduction in the prison population in 2020, when many inmates were released early amid public health concerns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2020, the prison population has been slowly increasing again—though it remains below levels seen in the 2010s.
Despite these positive trends in incarceration and recidivism, the report warns that the overall picture is more complex. From 2014 to 2024, Colorado’s violent crime rate increased by more than 55%.
Looking more closely between December 2019 and December 2021, the report found that while the number of inmates in state prisons fell by over 20%, the violent crime rate rose nearly 25%.
“Arrest counts and violent crime have been shifting at inversely proportional rates, meaning that as arrests decrease, violent crime increases,” the report noted.
Summers added that Common Sense Institute conducted an analysis showing a “strong correlation” between decreases in arrests and prison population and increases in crime.
Furthermore, even with the decline in the recidivism rate, 31% of inmates released by the Colorado Department of Corrections still return to prison within three years.
The report argues that it is time to refocus the state’s priorities away from leniency and toward deterrence, accountability, and public safety.
“The state’s challenge is no longer to reduce its correctional footprint; it is to restore accountability and deterrence without abandoning compassion,” the report stated. “Colorado must find a middle ground between punitive excess and permissive neglect.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/3862533/report-warns-reforms-fuel-rise-colorado-violent-crime/
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