Bitcoin Weekly Close Could Decide the Fate of Its Bull Market

Bitcoin Faces Crucial Weekly Close as Key Price Levels Hang in the Balance

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching an important weekly close, with several critical price levels on the line that could determine the future trajectory of the bull market. Market participants are watching closely amid sustained whale selling and mixed signals from technical indicators.

BTC Price Inches Within Narrow Range Ahead of Weekly Close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed a period of price inertia over the weekend, with Bitcoin trading in a tight range. Volatility was subdued, but traders remained focused on how the weekly candle would ultimately close, given the implications for market sentiment.

Trader Titan of Crypto highlighted a “key level of the week” at $103,500, referencing Fibonacci retracement levels as the basis for its importance. He noted, “A weekly close below isn’t dramatic, but a confirmed breakdown next week would signal the bull market is likely over. Not there yet.”

Meanwhile, some analysts emphasized the importance of BTC closing above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits at approximately $100,940. Trader Max Crypto cautioned, “We don’t want a weekly close below this at any cost,” citing the EMA as a critical support threshold.

Death Cross Risk Draws Attention

Another focal point for traders is the looming risk of a “death cross” on the daily chart, where the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) could cross below the 200-period SMA. Trader SuperBro commented on this development, stating, “The 4th ‘death cross’ of the bull cycle is approaching. Each time we’ve seen reversion to the mean and a sustained bottom.”

He added that so far, reactions around the 365 SMA have been lukewarm but remained optimistic: “Let’s see if bulls can get it together and reclaim the Q3 low for the weekly close.”

US Government Shutdown and Trade Tariff Developments Could Impact Markets

Beyond technical analysis, crypto markets are closely watching political developments in the United States that could affect risk assets like Bitcoin. Optimism is growing around a potential resolution to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has been a drag on economic confidence.

Additionally, expectations for a Supreme Court decision that could strike down international trade tariffs are building. Such a ruling might provide an immediate boost to the broader stock market and risk-on assets.

Cas Abbe, contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, summarized the sentiment: “If the US government shutdown ends, we could see an expansion soon.” He also suggested that ending the shutdown might mark the conclusion of a “manipulation” phase in BTC price action, referencing a chart he shared on social media.

Mixed Sentiment Among Investors Amid Whale Selling

Despite hopes for positive news, some remain cautious. Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows noted, “BTC is still consolidating around the $102,000 level. The markets were expecting the end of the government shutdown this weekend, but it didn’t happen.”

Pillows also warned that Bitcoin’s price could decline further due to waning institutional demand and ongoing selling pressure from long-term whale holders. Cointelegraph has previously reported on sustained whale selling throughout 2025, adding downward pressure on the market.

Final Thoughts

As Bitcoin approaches this crucial weekly close, the market faces a pivotal moment. Key technical levels like $103,500 and the 50-week EMA around $100,940 will play significant roles in shaping sentiment and potential price direction. Meanwhile, external factors such as the US government shutdown and trade tariff rulings could either bolster or hinder risk appetite.

Investors are advised to exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should conduct their own thorough research before taking any action.
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