Two of the most closely watched contests this election night are the primary races for a Senate seat in Texas, currently held by Sen. John Cornyn. Both the GOP and Democratic primaries serve as potential litmus tests for the direction that base voters want their parties to take ahead of the midterm elections this fall, which will determine control of Congress.
Cornyn, a conservative stalwart, is hoping to fend off two main challengers: Ken Paxton, the state’s often embattled attorney general, and Congressman Wesley Hunt. Both challengers argue that they are more closely aligned with former President Trump and the current trajectory of the Republican Party, which has continued a rightward shift over the past decade.
Cornyn, who has held the Senate seat since 2002, has consistently voted in favor of the president while in office. To win the primary outright, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote. Since all three candidates have garnered significant support in the polls, it is likely the race will be settled by a runoff in May.
If Cornyn were to lose the primary, the absence of an incumbent could create a unique opportunity for Democrats. They are aiming to flip enough Republican-held seats in the Senate to regain the majority.
On the Democratic side, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, an Austin-area state lawmaker, are competing to secure the nomination. Crockett announced her Senate bid after Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional lines at Trump’s urging last year. She was among several Democrats effectively drawn out of their districts, which had previously favored the Democratic Party.
Crockett attracted significant attention during her time in Congress for her willingness to verbally spar with Republican colleagues. Her decision to run shook up a primary race that Talarico was already contesting.
Talarico was first elected to the Texas House in 2018 after flipping a seat that had long been held by Republicans. As a seminarian, he often invokes his faith in hopes of connecting with voters that the Democratic Party does not frequently reach.
Initially, the race between Crockett and Talarico was cordial. However, as Election Day approached and more money and attention poured into the contest, tensions between the two candidates grew, despite their agreement on most issues and policies.
The primary divide between them centers on strategy: Talarico aims to win over moderates and disenchanted Republicans, while Crockett is betting on boosting turnout among Democrats to secure victory.
Additionally, this Senate race could provide insight into whether Republicans are maintaining the gains they made with Latino voters—an increasingly influential demographic in Texas—during the 2024 election. Recent polling suggests that Latino voters in Texas, as well as nationwide, are beginning to distance themselves from the Republican Party due to concerns over the economy and immigration enforcement.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/03/nx-s1-5734515/texas-primary-election-results-james-talarico-jasmine-crockett-john-cornyn-ken-paxton