The college football season may have months left before we crown a College Football Playoff (CFP) champion, but the coaching carousel is already spinning fast. High-profile coaches like Billy Napier of Florida, Sam Pittman of Arkansas, and even longtime Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy have been fired, along with several others—including the recent dismissal of Brian Kelly from LSU.
The firings have come thick and fast so far this season, but the one that stands out most is clearly James Franklin from Penn State. The Nittany Lions parted ways with their head coach after more than 11 seasons and a 104-45 career record. This move shocked the college football world, leaving a significant vacancy at one of the elite Big Ten programs. It also created a rare scenario: a high-profile, highly prestigious coach entering next season without a job.
These developments make the upcoming coaching carousel all the more intriguing. To explore how these changes might unfold, I turned to EA’s College Football 26 (CFB 26). This simulation helps illuminate potential coaching moves going into next season—not just involving Penn State and James Franklin, but across the broader college football landscape.
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### The Process
As far as I know, CFB 26 doesn’t offer a “play from current week” option, where you can start Dynasty mode with the current season’s team records and game results in place. To create an accurate snapshot of the college football world, I had to do some legwork.
I started a new Dynasty Mode with a random team (Miami of Ohio, in case anyone’s curious) and turned on automatic simulation for everything—recruiting, player progression, coaching upgrades, and more. Then, I systematically went through each Power 5 team’s schedule, referencing real-world results from Google, and forced wins or losses in-game to match the actual season outcomes.
For example, I forced Indiana’s wins and losses through the current week to align with their real record. I only did this detailed workaround for Power Five teams and a handful of the top Group of Five programs, so it didn’t take nearly as long as I initially thought.
To ensure the simulation mirrored real-life coaching changes, I also manipulated certain teams’ performances—such as forcing Penn State to go 0-8 in their first eight games to guarantee James Franklin’s firing. I did the same for other fired coaches, except for Brian Kelly and LSU, since his firing had not been announced at the time of this experiment. Consequently, in my simulation, LSU retained Kelly, which could slightly skew potential coaching moves since Franklin might be a candidate for that job if it opens.
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### Penn State’s Head Coach Search
**Top Targets in the Simulation:**
– Shane Beamer, South Carolina
– Matt Campbell, Iowa State
– Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Penn State, being one of college football’s premier programs, quickly filled its vacancy by hiring Shane Beamer as the new head coach. Beamer’s team went 7-6 in the simulation season, but he was by far the most sought-after coach on the carousel (though the game might be confusing him with Curt Cignetti!).
This outcome feels unlikely in real life. Beamer is not widely regarded as the top target for Penn State, whereas coaches like Lane Kiffin and Matt Campbell are more realistically in the running. The current consensus points to Curt Cignetti of undefeated Indiana or Matt Rhule—formerly head coach of the Carolina Panthers and Nebraska—as serious candidates.
Penn State also hired Luke Fickell (former Wisconsin head coach) as defensive coordinator and Jason Candle (former Toledo head coach) as offensive coordinator to round out the staff.
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### James Franklin’s Journey
After his firing, Franklin quickly became the leading candidate for several key jobs:
**Top targets Franklin was connected to in the simulation:**
– Boston College head coach
– Virginia Tech head coach
**Other positions he was considered for:**
– Wisconsin head coach
– Florida head coach (behind Shane Beamer)
Once Beamer was hired by Penn State, Franklin seized the opportunity to become Florida’s head coach. CFB 26 predicted that Florida would finish with just four wins this season, so Franklin inherits a program in need of a turnaround.
Historically, Florida hasn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2019, though they have reached that mark a couple of times in recent years. Franklin’s track record is impressive—winning 10 or more games in four of the last five eligible seasons (not counting 2020, when the Big Ten played a shortened season). He brings a winning mindset to a Gators program that could definitely use it.
This move by CFB 26 feels spot-on; Florida seems like a great fit for Franklin. Other plausible landing spots for him include Auburn or LSU, though those opportunities weren’t available in this simulation because Brian Kelly remained at LSU.
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### Other Notable Head Coach Firings
– Lincoln Riley, USC
– Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
– Jedd Fisch, Washington
– Hugh Freeze, Auburn
– Billy Napier, Florida (real life)
– Sherrone Moore, Michigan
– Jonathan Smith, Michigan State
– Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
– Sam Pittman, Arkansas (real life)
– Deshaun Foster, UCLA (real life)
– Bill O’Brien, Boston College
Lincoln Riley’s firing is a bit surprising, given that only a few seasons ago he was regarded as one of the nation’s top coaches. Realistically, he might be granted more time. The departures of Fickell, Freeze, and Fisch are less unexpected.
What stood out most was Michigan firing Sherrone Moore. Michigan was 2-4 in the simulation and finished with only four wins. But I didn’t expect the program to move on from Moore so quickly after Jim Harbaugh entrusted him to lead the team. It seemed he was still building his own program and recruiting classes. Now, Michigan is officially in the open market for a new head coach, competing with Penn State to attract the nation’s top talent.
With both Michigan and Penn State searching, no program is safe from losing coaches to competing offers.
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### Other Notable Head Coach Hirings
– Steve Sarkisian: Texas → Michigan
– Lane Kiffin: Ole Miss → Texas
– Clark Lea: Vanderbilt → Virginia Tech
– Ryan Silverfield: Memphis → Auburn
– Eliah Drinkwitz: Missouri → Arkansas
– Kalani Sitake: BYU → Oklahoma State
– Kyle Whittingham: Utah → USC
– Justin Wilcox: Cal → UCLA
– Lincoln Riley: USC → Washington
– Lance Leipold: Kansas → Wisconsin
– Clay Helton: Georgia Southern → South Carolina
– Thomas Hammock: Northern Illinois → Michigan
– Timmy Chang: Hawaii → BYU
– Tony Elliott: Virginia → Missouri
– Jedd Fisch: Washington → Utah
– Billy Napier: Florida → Memphis
– Sherrone Moore: Michigan → Boston College
– Hugh Freeze: Auburn → Troy
– Mike Gundy: Oklahoma State → Delaware
– Jonathan Smith: Michigan State → Fresno State
– Tony Sanchez: New Mexico State → Ole Miss
Michigan made a big splash, landing one of the top coaches in the country. Texas, after early-season struggles, rebounded and made the College Football Playoffs with Arch Manning at quarterback. Steve Sarkisian’s move to Michigan rewarded him with a prestigious position.
Texas, as a powerhouse, had its pick of coaches and snatched Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss, leaving Ole Miss scrambling. Ole Miss turned to New Mexico State’s Tony Sanchez, who went 3-9 in Conference USA and now faces a tough uphill battle.
In other moves, Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea stepped down to take the Virginia Tech job after leading Vanderbilt to a 10-win season, narrowly missing the playoffs. BYU’s Kalani Sitake replaced Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, signaling a major culture shift. Lincoln Riley took the helm at Washington to try to restore success after the Kalen DeBoer era. Sherrone Moore landed at Boston College to work on rebuilding after Bill O’Brien’s tenure.
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### Final Thoughts
This simulation paints a chaotic picture of college football’s coaching landscape with many moves that don’t necessarily make logical sense and some destined to fail. Many seem like media-driven shakes intended to capture headlines rather than genuine hires based on fit or stability.
Nevertheless, the experiment aligns well with reality so far, capturing the frenzy and unpredictability of the 2024 college football coaching carousel. With marquee programs like Penn State and Michigan open and aggressive, the next few months promise an exhilarating coaching offseason.
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