Category: international relations

Sri Lanka witnessed a mass uprising against the Rajapaksa government, forcing the regime to resign in July 2022. Fortunately, the steady hand of Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting president, followed by the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the left-wing coalition as president in September 2024, and the peaceful transfer of power preserved the constitutional order and restored political stability.

However, in the process, the major parties were marginalized, and the NPP coalition emerged victorious, reflecting voters’ disenchantment with established parties.

In Bangladesh, another uprising against the Sheikh Hasina government occurred in August 2024, culminating in her resignation and the formation of an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus. While Sheikh Hasina’s leadership accelerated economic growth, her politics of vengeance and the absence of parliamentary opposition led to public unrest. An election is expected to be held in February 2026, but whether it will bring stability and legitimacy to the future government remains an open question.

Nepal also witnessed a youth uprising that forced the resignation of KP Sharma Oli’s coalition government, the dissolution of parliament, and the appointment of an interim government headed by Sushila Karki, a former chief justice. This interim government has announced elections in six months. It remains to be seen if stability, order, and legitimacy will be restored.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan’s PTI party was denied an election symbol in the February 2024 elections. Despite repression and alleged large-scale rigging, PTI-supported independents won most seats. The PML-N and PPP, the country’s second- and third-largest political groups, formed a coalition government. The situation is inherently unstable, and the government’s legitimacy is questionable under these circumstances. Historically, elected governments in Pakistan have rarely exercised real authority; the army remains in control, with the government serving as a democratic fig leaf.

Thailand faces similar challenges, where the army and monarchists wield real power, removing elected governments at will. Myanmar’s experience has been equally turbulent. After decades of struggle, the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government came to power with a massive mandate but governed under the army’s shadow. In the next election cycle, the army took direct control again, incarcerating political leaders and plunging the nation into civil war.

Pakistan, Thailand, and Myanmar face challenges to democracy primarily due to the dominant role of their armed forces, which exercise real political power.

By contrast, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal represent a different pattern, where elected governments were overthrown by populist anger and street agitations.

The events in Nepal over the past 17 years, since the end of the monarchy, highlight the fragility of nascent democracies if strong institutions, traditions, and practices are not in place. In these 17 years, Nepal has seen 14 governments, including the current interim one.

Since the November 2022 general election, Nepal has experienced five government changes in just 34 months. The CPN (Maoist Centre), led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, won only 32 of the 275 seats in the lower house. The CPN (UML), headed by KP Sharma Oli, secured 79 seats, and the Nepali Congress, led by Sher Bahadur Deuba, won 88 seats.

Dahal was initially part of an alliance with the Nepali Congress. However, post-election, he abandoned his alliance partner and became prime minister with Oli’s support. Within three months, in March 2023, he switched partners again to form the government with the Nepali Congress’s support. A year later, in March 2024, he reverted to Oli’s support, forming his third government since the election. Then in July 2024, Oli’s CPN (UML) and Deuba’s Nepali Congress formed a coalition government with Oli as prime minister.

This breathtaking political cynicism among major parties and leaders, unstable governments, and the coalition of the two leading parties leaving a vacuum in opposition led to a swift flashpoint.

Similarly, Sheikh Hasina’s crackdown on opposition in Bangladesh led to her downfall. When citizens cannot voice grievances through opposition parties and peaceful protests, anger and frustration can boil over, toppling regimes or constitutions.

When brazen corruption and an unbridled lust for power exist without purpose, popular anger can be easily aroused. The greatest asset for any government is not merely legislative numbers but the credibility and public trust that its leaders enjoy.

Given these convulsions, some wonder whether India might face similar political upheavals.

The conditions in India are markedly different. We are a robust democracy characterized by intense electoral competition, fair elections, political freedoms, peaceful transfers of power, and respect for electoral verdicts. Elected governments exercise real authority in the country.

Despite flaws, political parties in India are active in mobilizing people and allowing grievances to be ventilated. Governments generally exercise restraint in dealing with agitations. The courts and constitutional authorities enjoy real autonomy and credibility, supported by healthy traditions and practices established early on.

India’s diversity, large size, and genuine federalism—with states gaining strength over the last three decades—ensure stability. Governance primarily occurs at the state level, containing problems within states and rarely allowing issues to spill over into other regions.

These factors ensure stability and legitimacy, despite the inevitable chaos and noise in a vibrant democracy.

However, complacency would be unwise.

Recently, reckless rhetoric questioning the legitimacy of elections whenever a party loses has become dangerously common. India needs electoral reforms to eliminate unaccounted money from politics and make the field hospitable to the best talent in society.

The rule of law remains weak, power too centralized at the state level, and local governments largely irrelevant. Most Indian workers are in the unorganized sector without secure monthly wages. While economic growth is robust, it is not yet inclusive enough.

To maintain and strengthen our democracy, we must address challenges of political and governance reform and inclusive growth.

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*The author is the founder of the Lok Satta movement and Foundation for Democratic Reforms.*

*Email: drjploksatta@gmail.com | Twitter: @jp_loksatta*
https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/indian-stability-in-the-midst-of-south-asian-chaos