Boston is predicted to be in the mix for several of the top free agents this MLB offseason. Although free agency is officially underway, it might still be some time before the biggest names sign new contracts. The winter meetings won’t take place until December 7, which is typically when many top free agents begin to find new homes.
With plenty of time until then, numerous insiders and outlets have released their predictions for MLB free agency recently. Most seem to agree that the Red Sox will be among the more active teams this offseason.
### Boston’s Payroll Situation
Boston is in a strong position to spend this offseason. According to Red Sox Payroll, the team currently has roughly $219 million committed for next season. This places them about $25 million below the first luxury tax threshold and approximately $45 million under the second. This financial flexibility should allow the Red Sox to pursue key free agents.
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## Top Free Agent Targets and Predictions for the Red Sox
### Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox
**What they’re predicting:**
The Red Sox appear to be the favorite to re-sign Bregman, though not by a large margin. In an MLB.com survey of 46 voters, 43% believe Bregman will stay with Boston. Sports Illustrated also predicts Bregman will re-sign with the Red Sox. ESPN’s David Schoenfield and The Athletic list Boston among the best fits for him, though MLB Trade Rumors writers do not expect him to remain in Boston.
**Contract projections:**
– Six years, $171 million (The Athletic)
– Six years, $160 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Bregman:**
Bregman was arguably the Red Sox’s best hitter last season, posting a .273 batting average with an .821 OPS, 18 home runs, and 62 RBIs over 114 games. However, he struggled late in the season, hitting just .187 with a .581 OPS in the final 27 games due to a quad injury earlier in the year.
Last offseason, Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with Boston after a slow free agency period. This year, teams like the Tigers, Cubs, and Astros have expressed interest. He officially opted out of his contract in November.
Ideally, the Red Sox would re-sign Bregman, but there are alternative options in free agency and within the system — including promising prospect Marcelo Mayer, who filled in for Bregman during his injury.
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### Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF, Phillies
**What they’re predicting:**
Boston is among the favorites to sign Schwarber, though they are not the strong favorite. Thirteen percent of MLB.com voters see Schwarber joining the Red Sox, second only to the Phillies. The Athletic lists Boston among the three best fits for him, alongside the Phillies and Reds. MLB Trade Rumors writers, however, do not predict the Red Sox will sign Schwarber.
**Contract projections:**
– Five years, $145 million (The Athletic)
– Five years, $135 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Schwarber:**
Schwarber, turning 33 in March, was one of the top sluggers in baseball last season. He led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, while hitting .240 with a .928 OPS. Power was a missing element for the Red Sox offense in 2025, as they ranked just 15th in home runs.
Signing Schwarber would provide Boston with a stable, everyday designated hitter and a much-needed power bat following the trade of Rafael Devers.
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### Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
**What they’re predicting:**
Alonso is also among the free-agent hitters the Red Sox might sign, though they are not the top favorite. Twenty-two percent of MLB.com voters see Alonso joining Boston, second only to the Mets. Two of four MLB Trade Rumors writers predict Alonso will sign with Boston. The Athletic lists the Red Sox among the three best fits for him (with the Mets and Phillies).
**Contract projections:**
– Five years, $140 million (The Athletic)
– Four years, $110 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Alonso:**
Like Schwarber, Alonso is a power hitter but bats right-handed. He has hit at least 30 home runs in every full season (except the COVID-shortened 2020). Last season, Alonso batted .272 with a .871 OPS, leading the NL in doubles (41) and posting 38 home runs and 126 RBIs.
Signing Alonso could address two needs for Boston: adding right-handed power and filling the first base position. With Triston Casas rehabbing from a torn patellar tendon, the team has yet to name a confirmed starting first baseman for 2026. Additionally, Alonso’s durability is a plus, missing just nine games across the last four seasons.
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### Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Japan
**What they’re predicting:**
Only a few MLB.com voters think Murakami will sign with Boston, and one of four MLB Trade Rumors writers predicts the same. The Athletic lists the Red Sox as one of Murakami’s best fits alongside the Cubs and Blue Jays.
**Contract projections:**
– Eight years, $158.5 million (The Athletic)
– Eight years, $160 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Murakami:**
The 25-year-old third baseman, dubbed the “Japanese Babe Ruth” for his power, was officially posted on Friday and has a 45-day window to sign with an MLB team. Murakami set the NPB single-season home run record with 56 in 2022 and has consistently hit 30+ home runs in full seasons.
Last year, he hit 22 home runs with a .273 average and 1.042 OPS in just 56 games. However, he has struggled with strikeouts and hitting fastballs over 93 mph. Murakami could be an option at third base if Boston loses Bregman, though some see him as a better fit at first base.
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### Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres
**What they’re predicting:**
A few MLB.com voters believe Cease will sign with Boston. Additionally, two of four MLB Trade Rumors writers foresee Cease joining the Red Sox.
**Contract projections:**
– Six years, $174 million (The Athletic)
– Six years, $189 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Cease:**
Cease, who turns 30 in December, is arguably the top pitcher available this offseason. Despite an 8-12 record and 4.55 ERA last season, he recorded 215 strikeouts over 168 innings in 32 starts. He finished in the top four of Cy Young award voting in three of the past four seasons with the White Sox.
Cease would bolster the Red Sox rotation and likely replace outgoing free agent Lucas Giolito.
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### Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
**What they’re predicting:**
Some MLB.com voters predict Valdez will sign with Boston. The Athletic lists the Red Sox among Valdez’s three best fits, alongside the Orioles and Blue Jays.
**Contract projections:**
– Seven years, $196 million (The Athletic)
– Five years, $150 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Valdez:**
Valdez, who will turn 32 this November, posted a 13-11 record with a 3.66 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 192 innings in 31 starts last season. Although his 2025 numbers could be described as a slight dip, he was a consistent top-10 AL Cy Young candidate in the three previous seasons.
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### Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Mariners
**What they’re predicting:**
A few MLB.com voters think Suarez will join Boston, and one MLB Trade Rumors writer predicts the same.
**Contract projections:**
– Three years, $69 million (The Athletic)
– Three years, $60 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
**What to know about Suarez:**
The 34-year-old slugger hit 49 home runs combined between the Diamondbacks and Mariners last season. However, his performance declined after the trade, hitting just .189 in Seattle. His batting average has also trended downward since 2020.
Boston was reportedly interested in Suarez before he was traded to Seattle and considered moving him to first base, making him a potential option regardless of the Bregman situation.
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## Other Notable Free Agent Predictions Involving the Red Sox
The Athletic lists Boston as a best fit for right-handed pitcher Michael King (Padres) and left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez (Phillies).
– **Michael King, RHP:** Age 30, two seasons with sub-3.50 ERA as a starter, projected $75-$80 million total contract.
– **Ranger Suarez, LHP:** Went 12-8 with a 3.20 ERA last season, projected six-year, $153 million deal.
Additionally, several MLB.com voters predict the Red Sox could sign:
– **J.T. Realmuto, C (Phillies):** Turning 35 in March, hit .257 with 12 homers in 134 games last season. Projected to sign a contract worth about $15 million per year.
– **Luis Arraez, Infielder (Padres):** One of baseball’s best hitters for average recently, hitting .292 in 2025. Projected to sign a two-year deal worth $24-$30 million.
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With a strong payroll position and multiple roster needs, the Red Sox are shaping up to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. Fans can expect a busy offseason as Boston looks to bolster its lineup and pitching staff ahead of the 2026 campaign.
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2025/11/08/red-sox-mlb-free-agency-predictions-rumors/
