Regions Financial Corporation (RF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation’s quarterly earnings call. My name is Chris, and I will be your operator for today’s call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

**Dana Nolan**
EVP & Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Chris. Welcome to Regions’ Third Quarter earnings call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding our results. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP reconciliations, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, today’s prepared remarks, and Q&A.

I will now turn the call over to John.

**John Turner**
President, CEO & Chairman

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today.

Earlier this morning, we reported strong quarterly earnings of $548 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.61. On an adjusted basis, earnings were $561 million or $0.63 per share.

We delivered adjusted pretax pre-provision income of $830 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, and we generated a strong return on tangible common equity of 19%. We…
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4830817-regions-financial-corporation-rf-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles

On the precipice of authoritarian rule

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump threatened to unleash the armed forces on more American cities during a rambling address to top military brass. He told the hundreds of generals and admirals gathered to hear him that some of them would be called upon to take a primary role at a time when his administration has launched occupations of American cities, deployed tens of thousands of troops across the United States, created a framework for targeting domestic enemies, cast his political rivals as subhuman, and asserted his right to wage secret war and summarily execute those he deems terrorists.

Trump used that bizarre speech to take aim at cities he claimed “are run by the radical left Democrats,” including Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco. “We’re going to straighten them out one by one. And this is going to be a major part for some of the people in this room,” he said. “That’s a war too. It’s a war from within.” He then added: “We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military.”

Trump has, of course, already deployed the armed forces inside the United States in an unprecedented fashion during the first year of his second term in office. As September began, a federal judge found that his decision to occupy Los Angeles with members of California’s National Guard—under so-called Title 10 or federalized status—against the wishes of California Governor Gavin Newsom was illegal.

But just weeks later, Trump followed up by ordering the military occupation of Portland, Oregon, over Governor Tina Kotek’s objections. “I am directing Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to provide all necessary Troops to protect War ravaged Portland and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists,” Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. And he “authoriz[ed] Full Force, if necessary.”

When a different federal judge blocked him from deploying Oregon National Guardsmen to the city, he ordered in Guard members from California and Texas. That judge then promptly blocked his effort to circumvent her order, citing the lack of a legal basis for sending troops into Portland. In response, Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act—an 1807 law that grants the president emergency powers to deploy troops on U.S. soil—to “get around” the court rulings blocking his military occupation efforts. “I think that’s all insurrection, really criminal insurrection,” he claimed, in confused remarks from the Oval Office.

### Experts Express Concerns Over Posse Comitatus Violations

Experts say that his increasing use of the armed forces within the United States represents an extraordinary violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. That bedrock nineteenth-century law banning the use of federal troops to execute domestic law enforcement has long been seen as fundamental to America’s democratic tradition. However, the president’s deployments continue to nudge this country ever closer to becoming a genuine police state.

They come amid a raft of other Trump administration authoritarian measures designed to undermine the Constitution and weaken democracy. Those include attacks on birthright citizenship and free speech, as well as the exercise of expansive unilateral powers like deporting people without due process and rolling back energy regulations, citing wartime and emergency powers.

### A Presidential Police Force?

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled last month that Trump’s deployment of federal troops to Los Angeles, which began in June, was illegal and harkened back to Britain’s use of soldiers for law enforcement purposes in colonial America. He warned that Trump clearly intends to transform the National Guard into a presidential police force.

“Congress spoke clearly in 1878 when it passed the Posse Comitatus Act, prohibiting the use of the U.S. military to execute domestic law,” Breyer wrote in his 52-page opinion. “Nearly 140 years later, Defendants—President Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and the Department of Defense—deployed the National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles, ostensibly to quell a rebellion and ensure that federal immigration law was enforced. Yet there was no rebellion, nor was civilian law enforcement unable to respond to the protests and enforce the law.”

The judge ruled that the Pentagon had systematically used armed soldiers to perform police functions in California in violation of Posse Comitatus and planned to do so elsewhere in America. As he put it, “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth have stated their intention to call National Guard troops into federal service in other cities across the country, thus creating a national police force with the President as its chief.”

In the face of that scathing opinion, the president has nonetheless ramped up his urban military occupations, while threatening to launch yet more of them. “Now we’re in Memphis. And we’re going to Chicago,” Trump told a large crowd of sailors in Norfolk, Virginia, during a celebration of the Navy’s 250th anniversary earlier this month. “And so we send in the National Guard, we send in whatever’s necessary. People don’t care.”

### Unprecedented Military Deployments Across the Country

As October began, Trump had already deployed an unprecedented roughly 35,000 federal troops within the United States, according to reporting at The Intercept. Those forces, drawn from the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and National Guard, have been or will soon be deployed under Title 10 authority, or federal control, in at least seven states—Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and Texas—to aid and enforce the Trump administration’s anti-immigrant agenda, while further militarizing America.

Other Guardsmen, being sent to cities across the country ranging from Memphis to New Orleans, are serving under Title 32 status, which means they will officially be under state control—a measure Trump uses in states with Republican governors. National Guard forces deployed to Washington, D.C. as part of Trump’s federal takeover of the district in August are operating under the same Title 32 status. But with no governor to report to, the D.C. National Guard’s chain of command runs from its commanding general directly to the secretary of the Army, then to Pete Hegseth, and finally to Trump himself.

### Legal Battles and Resistance

In September, a long-threatened occupation of Chicago began with an ICE operation targeting immigrants in that city, dubbed “Midway Blitz.” A month later, the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago sued Trump, seeking to block the imminent deployment of federalized Illinois and Texas National Guard troops to that city.

A federal judge in Chicago blocked the deployment of troops in Chicago for at least two weeks. The Justice Department appealed but an appeals court ruled Saturday that while the troops can remain there under federal control, they can’t be deployed. “They are not conducting missions right now,” a Northern Command spokesperson told TomDispatch on Tuesday, admitting that she didn’t know exactly what the troops were doing.

The president has also threatened to deploy National Guard troops to Baltimore, New York City, Oakland, Saint Louis, San Francisco, and Seattle.

“When military troops police civilians, we have an intolerable threat to individual liberty and the foundational values of this country,” said Hina Shamsi, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Security Project. “President Trump may want to normalize armed forces in our cities, but no matter what uniform they wear, federal agents and military troops are bound by the Constitution and have to respect our rights to peaceful assembly, freedom of speech, and due process. State and local leaders must stay strong and take all lawful measures to protect residents against this cruel intimidation tactic.”

### “Living in a Dream World”

Trump’s Portland order drew pushback from Oregon’s Democratic lawmakers, local leaders, and outside experts, who said there was no need for federal troops to be deployed to the city.

“There is no national security threat in Portland,” Governor Kotek announced on social media. “Our communities are safe and calm.” Independent reporting corroborated her assessment.

After Kotek conveyed that to Trump in a phone call, the president seemed to briefly question whether he had been misled about an antifa “siege” there and the city being “war-ravaged.” As he recounted, “I spoke to the governor, but I said, ‘Well, wait a minute, am I watching things on television that are different from what’s happening? My people tell me different.’”

Days later, despite countless reports that there was neither a war nor a siege underway in Portland, Trump posted on social media that Kotek was “living in a ‘Dream World’” and returned to peddling lies about the city.

“Portland is a NEVER-ENDING DISASTER. Many people have been badly hurt and even killed. It is run like a Third World Country,” he wrote on TruthSocial. “We’re only going in because, as American Patriots, WE HAVE NO CHOICE. LAW AND ORDER MUST PREVAIL IN OUR CITIES, AND EVERYWHERE ELSE!”

Judge Karin Immergut of the U.S. District Court in Oregon issued a temporary restraining order preventing the Trump administration from sending 200 Oregonian National Guard troops for a 60-day deployment in Portland. As she concluded in her opinion, she expected a trial court to agree with the state’s contention that the president had exceeded his constitutional authority.

Trump immediately took aim at her—despite the fact that he had appointed her to office during his first term—saying that she “ought to be ashamed of herself.” He then claimed, without any basis, that Portland was “burning to the ground.” Trump then made further hyperbolic claims about the city and threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act.

“Portland is on fire. Portland’s been on fire for years,” he said, describing the situation as “all insurrection.”

The same Northern Command spokesperson told TomDispatch on Tuesday that the federalized troops in Oregon were also in a holding pattern. “They are on standby,” she said.

### Escalating Authoritarian Actions

The president’s Portland order followed a series of authoritarian actions that have pushed the nation ever closer to becoming a genuine police state.

In August, reports emerged that the Pentagon was planning to create a Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force that would include two groups of 300 National Guard troops to be kept on standby at military bases in Alabama and Arizona for rapid deployment across the country. (That proposed force would also reportedly operate under Title 32.) The Pentagon refused to offer further details about the initiative.

“The Department of Defense is a planning organization and routinely reviews how the department would respond to a variety of contingencies across the globe,” said a defense official, speaking at the time on the condition of anonymity. “We will not discuss these plans through leaked documents, pre-decisional or otherwise.”

Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order claiming to designate antifa—a loose-knit anti-fascist movement—as a “domestic terror organization.” He also issued National Security Presidential Memorandum 7, which directs the Justice Department and elements of the Intelligence Community and national security establishment to target “anti-fascism movements” and “domestic terrorist organizations.”

Such enemies, according to the president, not only espouse “anti-Americanism” and “support for the overthrow of the United States Government,” but also are typified by advocacy of opinions protected by the First Amendment, including “anti-capitalism,” “anti-Christianity,” and “hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.”

After referring to the “war from within” during his address to the military’s top officers, he cast his political rivals as subhuman and claimed that they needed to be dealt with.

“We have to take care of this little gnat that’s on our shoulder called the Democrats,” he told the sailors during the Navy’s 250th anniversary celebration.

### Secret Wars and Lethal Force Claims

The Trump administration has also admitted that it’s waging a secret war against undisclosed enemies without the consent of Congress.

According to a confidential notice from the Department of War sent to lawmakers, the president has unilaterally decided that the United States is engaged in a declared state of “non-international armed conflict” with “designated terrorist organizations” or DTOs.

It described three people killed by U.S. commandos on what was claimed to be a boat carrying drugs in the Caribbean last month as “unlawful combatants,” as if they were soldiers on a battlefield.

And that was a significant departure from standard practice in the long-running U.S. war on drugs, in which law enforcement, not the U.S. military, arrests suspected drug dealers rather than summarily executing them.

As Brian Finucane, a former State Department lawyer and a specialist in counterterrorism issues, as well as the laws of war, pointed out, the White House’s claims that Trump has the authority to use lethal force against anyone he decides is a member of a DTO is extraordinarily “dangerous and destabilizing.”

As he put it: “Because there’s no articulated limiting principles, the President could simply use this prerogative to kill any people he labels as terrorists, like antifa. He could use it at home in the United States.”

### Police State USA

The Trump administration’s military occupations of American cities, its deployment of tens of thousands of troops across the United States, its emerging framework for designating and targeting domestic enemies, its dehumanization of its political foes, and its assertion that the president has the right to wage secret war and summarily execute those he deems terrorists have left this country on the precipice of authoritarian rule.

With Trump attempting to fashion a presidential police force of armed soldiers for domestic deployment, while claiming the right to kill anyone he deems a terrorist, the threat to the rule of law in the United States is not just profound but historically unprecedented.
https://www.nationofchange.org/2025/10/17/on-the-precipice-of-authoritarian-rule/

Church of Norway apologizes for how it treated LGBTQ+ people

The Church of Norway apologized on Thursday to the country’s LGBTQ+ community for decades of discrimination, Reuters reports.

Presiding Bishop Olav Fykse Tveit acknowledged the church’s regret at the London Pub in Oslo, the site of a shooting during Pride celebrations in June 2022. Two people died in the homophobic attack. Tveit said the Evangelical Lutheran church, the largest denomination in Norway, had caused harm to gay people and thanked those who campaigned for change.

“The church in Norway has imposed shame, great harm, and pain,” the bishop said. “This should not have happened, and that is why I apologize today.”

A similar acknowledgment by the church’s bishops in 2022 addressed past discrimination, including a description of gay people by the Norwegian Bishops’ Conference in the 1950s as a “social danger of global dimensions.” Seventy years later, same-sex couples can marry in the Church of Norway.

A service was scheduled to follow the bishop’s remarks at the Oslo Cathedral on Thursday evening.

The church’s acknowledgement of institutional discrimination follows several similar apologies in recent years by other Christian denominations.

In 2023, the Church of England apologized for its “shameful” treatment of the LGBTQ+ community. Representing 85 million Anglicans worldwide, the Protestant church expressed regret for past rejections and exclusions.

“We want to apologize for the ways in which the Church of England has treated LGBTQI+ people—both those who worship in our churches and those who do not,” the bishops said in a statement. “For the times we have rejected or excluded you, and those you love, we are deeply sorry. The occasions on which you have received a hostile and homophobic response in our churches are shameful, and for this we repent.”

However, at the same time, bishops have refused to allow same-sex marriages in Anglican churches. Just this week, they turned back plans to officiate discreet blessings for same-sex couples, although such blessings can take place within routine church services.

In August, the United Church of Canada, the largest Protestant denomination in the country, acknowledged harms to the Two-Spirit and LGBTQ+ communities in Canada.

“We have failed to celebrate and delight in all of your beautiful Creation. We have wounded people instead of seeking wholeness. We are sorry,” said Rev. Michael Blair, the church’s General Secretary, in a message accompanying the official apology.

“We, The United Church of Canada, express our deepest apologies to all those who have experienced homophobia, transphobia, and biphobia within The United Church of Canada,” the statement read in part.

These institutional expressions of regret have been accompanied by recent individual apologies by church leaders, many within the Catholic Church.

In January, Catholic Cardinal Wilton Gregory of Washington, D.C., issued a personal apology from the pulpit.

“I apologize for my own failure to emulate Christ’s compassion,” he said. “The way that we have treated our LGBTQ brothers and sisters has brought them tears, and to many of us, disgrace.”

“I apologize from the heart for the hurt that has resulted in the loss of so many of our family members who belong to God no less than I do,” he added.

Last year, a Catholic bishop in Germany apologized for the church’s mistreatment of LGBTQ+ people, encouraging congregants to be more supportive of equality and inclusion.

“We want to be a diocese that values diversity,” Bishop Stephan Ackermann said during what he called a “public confession.”

The following month, Archbishop Heiner Koch of Berlin also apologized, labeling homophobia an “unholy line of tradition.”

In 2016, Pope Francis stated during a conversation with reporters aboard the papal plane that Christians owe apologies to gay people and others who have been offended or exploited by the church.

“I repeat what the Catechism of the Catholic Church says: that they must not be discriminated against, that they must be respected and accompanied pastorally,” Francis said. “The Church must ask forgiveness for not behaving many times—when I say the Church, I mean Christians! The Church is holy, we are sinners!”

A formal apology from the Catholic Church has not yet been issued.
https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2025/10/church-of-norway-apologizes-for-how-it-treated-lgbtq-people/

I moved from New York City to Los Angeles. Drinking culture and work-life balance feel so different on the West Coast.

I knew Los Angeles was a driving city, but I didn’t realize how common it is for people here to treat their cars like big, expensive accessories. It feels like the norm to spend significant amounts of time and money washing and caring for vehicles.

In my experience, when someone has a car in New York City (and can actually find a parking spot for it), they really only drive it on weekends to leave the city. They’re almost certainly not souping the vehicle up LA-style.

On a Saturday night in New York City, my friends and I would usually casually barhop without a clear plan. We might have chosen a neighborhood or had a starting point in mind, but we’d always end up walking a block or two to try to find our next hangout spot.

In contrast, I’ve found that Los Angeles bar culture seems more destination-oriented. People pick a spot—maybe two—and that’s the night. There seems to be more forethought and logistics involved in night-out plans, perhaps because a lot of people drive and don’t want to leave their cars, or they need to plan their drinking around sobering up to drive home.

In my experience, drinking alcohol in LA doesn’t seem as popular as it did in New York. In LA, there’s a good chance you or someone in your friend group is driving home from the bar, so they’ll be drinking less alcohol or sticking to mocktails. People in New York are more likely to use public transportation, so they don’t have to worry about getting behind the wheel after a night out.

It also feels easier to make plans that don’t involve alcohol in LA since the warm weather lends itself to a lot of other options for socializing, like hiking, biking, or walking on the beach.

Since LA’s weather is great most of the time, with lots of sunshine and warmth, people here are quick to be unhappy when it’s anything less than perfect. When there’s a strong breeze, it’s cloudy, it’s below 60 degrees, or it’s raining a little, I’ve noticed that Angelenos seem more likely to cancel plans or be quick to complain. The attitude feels contagious, too.

I once decided it was too chilly to write in my yard and went inside—it was 65 degrees Fahrenheit, sunny, with a slight breeze. I wasn’t always this way, though. During my time in New York, 65 degrees and sunny in March equaled hundreds of people (including myself) flocking to Central Park with picnic baskets, games, and cheese boards to bask in the sun all day. New Yorkers know very well what all the highs and lows of changing seasons can look like, and a little rain or wind doesn’t stop them.

In my opinion, hustle culture doesn’t feel as glamorized in LA as it did back home. Where being busy can translate to looking important in NYC—I’ve been that girl with her computer at the bar on a Friday night—people I’ve encountered in LA seem to set better boundaries to protect their work-life balance.

I can’t help but think the perfect weather has something to do with it. Sure, this city is also full of people chasing their dreams, but it feels a lot easier to stop and take a break when you’ve got the California coast at your fingertips.

*This story was originally published on April 23, 2025, and most recently updated on October 17, 2025.*
https://www.businessinsider.com/moving-from-east-coast-to-west-coast-nyc-la-differences

Prince Andrew says he’s giving up the royal Duke of York title

Prince Andrew announced on Friday that he is relinquishing his royal title of Duke of York amid renewed public scrutiny over his association with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The younger brother of King Charles III stated that he and the royal family agreed the ongoing allegations against him have become a distraction from the work of His Majesty and the royal household. A statement released by Buckingham Palace confirmed the decision.

This development comes as excerpts from an upcoming posthumous memoir by Virginia Giuffre have been published. Giuffre alleges that she was trafficked by Epstein and that she had sexual encounters with Prince Andrew when she was 17 years old.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
https://abc7.com/post/buckingham-palace-says-prince-andrew-stop-using-titles-honors-including-duke-york/18026867/

Private data fills the gap imperfectly as government shutdown halts key economic reports

When a government shutdown halts the release of essential economic data, economists lose the nation’s most reliable gauges of employment, growth, and inflation. But they don’t stop analyzing — they start improvising.

Box office receipts, restaurant reservations, cardboard production, even data on garbage collection can give valuable clues about how American businesses and households are faring, particularly in this time of broad economic uncertainty. While economists agree that none of these can replace the scope and rigor of federal figures, until that official data starts flowing again, analysts are turning to an amalgamation of narrower public and private figures to try to understand economic trends.

“Economists are curious people,” said Allen Bellas, economics and finance professor at Metro State University who directs the graduate program. “And there are benefits of figuring out a good indicator that people might not have thought about before.”

### Impact of the Government Shutdown on Economic Data

When the government shut down on October 1, some of the workers responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing the data that informs policy and business decisions also stopped working. Since then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not released the planned September jobs report and has delayed the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, from this week to October 28.

The CPI figure is especially important because it is used to calculate the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for nearly 70 million Social Security beneficiaries, ensuring their checks keep pace with rising prices.

This federal economic data is considered an important gauge of the broader economic environment. States, municipalities, business owners, investors, and households use it to make investment, employment, and spending decisions. Meanwhile, academics and private-sector economists depend on federal data to inform growth models, predict recessions, and provide quality research upon which others rely.

### Alternative Sources of Economic Data

Researchers have learned over the years that there are alternative indicators they can turn to as measures of past and future economic performance. This approach has been particularly helpful when studying countries without resources for data gathering or where government data manipulation may be a concern. However, historically, researchers have been able to rely on the U.S. for accurate and timely data.

“Most other countries do not have the kinds of data we collect. And the reason we’ve done this is because it benefits our citizens, our taxpayers, our businesses. So they’re the ones that are going to be impacted the most,” said Erin McLaughlin, senior economist at The Conference Board.

### Pandemic Pushed Economists Outside the Box

During the pandemic, the importance of timely data pushed economists to supplement official government figures with real-time data from unconventional sources. Examples include:

– Demand for cardboard boxes
– Pollution data
– Garbage collection data
– State unemployment insurance claim numbers
– Daily airline passenger traffic from the Transportation Security Administration
– Credit and debit card transactions from card companies
– Port and rail activity
– Labor market data from payroll processing companies like ADP and UKG
– Restaurant booking data from OpenTable
– Hotel occupancy rates
– Home listing and sale prices from Zillow and realtors

These indicators helped economists shift from forecasting the future to “nowcasting” — using a wealth of unconventional data to create real-time measures of changing costs, hiring environments, and consumer confidence. This information is crucial for time-sensitive business and household decisions, said George Tawadros, associate professor of economics at Winona State University.

However, while useful in the moment, nowcasting does not provide the holistic economic view needed for longer-term planning.

“Those are good indicators, but they are subsets of what is happening in the economy,” said Marcus Bansah, associate economics professor at St. Olaf College.

### The Indispensable Role of Federal Data

For informed decision-making, economists emphasize the need for a more holistic approach, which requires federal government data. Ming Lo, economics and finance professor at Metro State University, divides federal data into three broad categories:

– Labor market statistics, including unemployment rates and job vacancies
– Output-related data, such as gross domestic product (GDP)
– Price data, such as the CPI inflation index

While private or state-level metrics can capture aspects of these categories imperfectly, the federal data remains essential. For example:

– Labor market data can draw on state unemployment rolls and private firms’ payroll information from ADP, UKG, or job search websites like Glassdoor and Indeed.
– GDP is difficult to measure without BLS data, yet it is vital for businesses making decisions about hiring, production, advertising, or investment.
– Pricing data, particularly inflation, has no true substitute in the private sector.

Moreover, government agencies rely on these metrics to make policy decisions, such as workforce development programs tailored to specific industries.

The social implications are high as well, given that the federal government must send out Social Security checks to nearly 75 million Americans. The amount they receive depends on inflation data, typically measured by the CPI.

“For measures like job openings or unemployment claims, there are reasonably good alternative sources. But for others, the void is much harder to fill. Pricing data, particularly inflation, is a prime example — there’s no true substitute for that information in the private sector,” said Allison Shrivastava, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

### Making Best Guesses Amid Data Gaps

Some economists are less concerned about the broader lapse in data releases. While some major headline figures are delayed, other agencies like the Federal Reserve, which is self-funded, continue to publish data.

Paul Kasriel, an independent economist and former Northern Trust chief economist, said he relies heavily on unemployment claims data, which he considers more reliable than the BLS jobs report due to its frequent revisions.

“These data count real people who have an incentive to get in line to collect benefits,” Kasriel explained. Still, he noted that the CPI report is the government data he misses most during this shutdown.

Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, believes his firm can still make educated forecasts despite the absence of some official data.

“At this stage, when we’re only missing a month’s data, we’re operating under pretty foggy skies, but we have a pretty good idea of where things stand,” Pearce said. “Relative to other advanced economies, we still have one of the best data systems in the world.”

Economists have been using proxies such as private payroll data, unemployment claims, card transactions, and gasoline demand to model the missing figures, though results are imperfect.

“These private data don’t have the statistical power to tell us if we’re going into a recession,” Pearce cautioned. “The official data serve as the anchor, the benchmark for all these private models.”

He warned that if the shutdown extends for months, the lack of government data could begin influencing critical decisions on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve.

### The U.S. Statistical System: The Backbone of Economic Analysis

Even though creative alternatives exist, economists agree that the U.S. government’s statistical system remains the backbone of economic analysis.

“Government data is really the gold standard for inflation and it’s needed for markets to function,” said Courtney Shupert, economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “There’s no perfect substitute. Many private estimates are benchmarked to government data, especially regional indicators that rely on federal statistics for weighting and sampling.”

Economists also noted that the last government shutdown in 2018-19 did not cause data disruption to this extent, nor did it occur during such a critical economic juncture.

“The last shutdown did not occur during a moment of big change like what we’re seeing lately, which is a decrease in immigration, unemployment ticking up, fewer job openings, and early signs of consumers feeling some pressure,” Shupert said.

These pressures on businesses and households heighten the importance of understanding the current state of the economy, even if the picture is imperfect without federal data.

For now, the shutdown serves as a stress test of the private sector’s data capabilities, and a reminder of how deeply our economic system depends on robust public data sources.
https://www.minnpost.com/economy/2025/10/private-data-fills-the-gap-imperfectly-as-government-shutdown-halts-key-economic-reports/

Stream It Or Skip It: ‘The Perfect Neighbor’ on Netflix, a Harrowing Documentary Addressing Stand-your-ground Laws in Florida

Director Geeta Gandbhir uses haunting police bodycam footage to tell the story of a deadly shooting.

In her latest project, Gandbhir masterfully weaves together raw, unfiltered visuals captured from police body cameras to provide a gripping and emotional narrative. The footage offers a stark and intimate look into the events leading up to and following the tragic incident.

Through this powerful documentary approach, viewers gain a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding the shooting, as well as the broader implications for law enforcement and community relations.

Gandbhir’s commitment to authenticity and respectful storytelling shines through, making this a compelling and thought-provoking film that resonates long after the credits roll.
https://decider.com/2025/10/17/the-perfect-neighbor-documentary-netflix-review-stream-it-or-skip-it/

Neil deGrasse Tyson on why he’s still waiting for proof of aliens

Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson tackles everything from moon explosions to Superman’s time-traveling tricks in his new book, *Just Visiting This Planet, Revisedd for the Twenty-First Century: Further Scientific Adventures of Merlin from Omniscia*. The book introduces readers to Merlin, an alien character Tyson created early in his career.

“Back then, you could have a simple question, but you couldn’t get an easy answer,” Tyson said during an appearance on *CBS Mornings* on Friday. “Now, you can type anything into Google, into ChatGPT. If you have ever seen those replies that come in from AI, it’s got no soul. It’s got no personality.”

According to Tyson, the questions he receives today are more playful and imaginative. “People are now asking questions that are a little more fun, rather than, ‘How hot is the sun?’—stuff you can just look up.” One example he highlights is: *”If aliens came and exploded the moon, what effect would that have on us?”*

Tyson notes that while the moon might not be crucial now, it may have played an important role in early life by creating isolated tide pools. “Without the moon, astronomers would be very happy, because the sky would be dark all the time,” he said.

### Likelihood of Life Elsewhere

On the topic of aliens, Tyson is clear about the science and the skepticism surrounding it. “Everyone that studied the question of life in the universe would not deny the likelihood of life elsewhere,” he said. However, he doubts that aliens have ever visited Earth.

“We all grew up when no one had cameras, so everything was an eyewitness testimony. Everybody has got a high resolution camera video, and nobody’s got some alien walking off their flying saucer,” Tyson explained.

### Curious Science Facts

The book also dives into quirky scientific curiosities, like how leap years actually work. Tyson shared an interesting explanation: “So someone said, ‘How accurate is the leap year correction?’ Because one day every four years, you have a leap day. Turns out, that overcorrects. So every 100 years, you have to take away a leap day that would otherwise be there. And that undercorrects. Now you have to add a leap day back every 400 years to correct for the other two leap days.”

He also addresses the famous *Superman* scene where reversing Earth’s rotation supposedly turns back time. Tyson’s verdict: impossible. “Your time is not linked to the rotation of the Earth, they have nothing to do with each other,” he explained. “But if he did that, the oceans, which are not attached to the Earth, would have kept moving. He would have killed a billion people in North and South America.”

### A Creative Collaboration

Tyson’s brother, an artist, did the illustrations for the book. “It’s a romp through the universe, celebrating people’s curiosity,” Tyson said.

*Just Visiting This Planet, Revisedd for the Twenty-First Century: Further Scientific Adventures of Merlin from Omniscia* goes on sale Tuesday.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/neil-degrasse-tyson-on-ai-why-he-doubts-aliens-have-visited-earth/

Exit mobile version